UBC ATSC 313 course project
Run-of-River Hydropower Investment Ranking
I built a screening model to compare ten proposed run-of-river projects across a 15-year investment period.
- Course
- Renewable Energy Meteorology
- Projects
- Ten proposed locations
- Horizon
- 15 years
- Reference
- Beauharnois, Canada
01 · Assignment
Rank the proposed projects
Each proposal was assumed to sit downstream of an operating reference plant and use the same installed capacity. I compared the locations using regional climate, seasonal precipitation, estimated generation, electricity price, and construction cost.
02 · Model
Estimate revenue and build cost
The model estimated daily and annual revenue, total revenue over 15 years, construction cost, and net profit. Seasonal multipliers represented changing river flow, while the cost calculation used installed capacity and a common cost per megawatt.
Classify
Group each location by regional climate and seasonal water supply.
Estimate
Calculate annual generation and revenue from the assignment assumptions.
Cost
Estimate construction cost from installed capacity.
Rank
Compare estimated 15-year net profit across the ten proposals.
03 · Reference check
Beauharnois Hydroelectric Station
I checked the model against the 1,903 MW Beauharnois station in Canada. Beauharnois represents about 5.5% of Hydro-Québec's total capacity, but the model produced a much larger revenue share. That comparison showed that the simplified assumptions overestimated real-world revenue.
04 · Conclusion
How to use the ranking
The model was useful for applying the same assumptions to every proposal and producing a first ranking. A full investment analysis would need verified flow-duration data, site-specific costs, financing, regulation, environmental effects, and operating constraints.